Wednesday, December 21, 2016

Wave 3 & 4 Regionals Analysis

The past weekend marked a break in current Regionals season.  When it picks back up in January, Wave 5 and the Corellian Conflict will be legal.  Which makes it a good time to look at the Regionals data where it sits right now.

The last season of Regionals for Armada featured only the Wave 1 & 2 ships.  This first part of this season also added in the Wave 3 & 4 releases.  This gives us a great opportunity to see what kind of impact those releases had on competitive play.

The current data can be found here:  LINK

For this post, I am going to use a similar format to the last time I looked the data for the last Regionals season.  You can see that post here.

What am I trying to answer?

The primary question this data hopes to address is "What are the differences, if any, between the fleets showing up at the top tables and the general attendance of Armada Regional Tournaments?"

For this set of data we can also compare it to the last set and ask "How has the composition of Regional tournament fleets changed with the release of waves 3 and 4?"

Is this data any good at all?

I think so, yes.  It is certainly improved from the last data set.

For the entire previous season we only had the full data for 8 tournaments and 143 fleet lists.  For this season we already have full data for 10 tournaments and 181 fleet lists.  Having more full tournament data is a huge help with the validity of the data.

With this data I also tend to focus more on the Top 4 finishers than simply the winners and we have a nice number of fleets, 44, at that level already.  This really helps answer that question.

So, thanks to a lot of help from volunteers, half way through this regional season the data set is in many ways more robust than last time.  That's really awesome.

So, what is it good for?

About the same as last time.  It won't help you build an ultimate unbeatable fleet.  It will still give you an idea of what kinds of fleets you might expect to see at a Regional.  It tells you the frequency of what is showing up and how often it is successful, but in no way measures skill or luck.

What have we learned so far? 

We will roll through this one section at a time.


So far, attendance numbers are fairly similar, with an average of about 18 players per tournament.

Rebels vs Imperials

AllBottom 1/4Top 1/2Top 8Top 4Winners
Wave 2Rebels45%52%50%50%47%33%

Wave 3/4Rebels59%61%63%68%61%67%


So, this regional season has gotten off to the opposite start of the last one.  Rebels are now carrying the day and showing up much more often.  
The Rebels are certainly doing better this season than the last.  The Imperials started out the previous season with this level of dominance.  It will be interesting to see if it levels out the same way that last season did.


Last season the 5 most commonly used and most successful admirals were Motti, Screed, Rieekan, Ackbar, and Dodonna.  This season the most commonly used and most successful admirals are Rieekan, Ackbar, Motti, Screed, and Dodonna.  So far not much has changed in which admirals are finding the most use and success.

AllTop 4Winner
Wave 2Motti23%27%37%




Wave 3/4Rieekan18%32%27%





One of the things that stands out to me is just how well Ackbar is doing this season compared to last.  He is not showing up as frequently, but seeing much more success overall.

Fleet Size - Squadrons - Deployments

Where fleet size was relatively flat last season, it definitely increases with finish order this season.  Overall a winning fleet has 1 more ship in it this season than last.  That is almost certainly the impact of flotillas.
The average number of squadrons also increased across the board, with the exception of the Top 4 finishers.  The overall trend is pretty similar.  I think the addition of flotillas made it easier to squeeze a couple of more squadrons into a fleet.  Still, plenty of low squadron fleets are finding success.
With both squadron and ship numbers increasing it is no surprise to see deployments trend upwards as well.


Rebel Ships
AllTop 4Winner
Wave 2CR-9053%63%78%



AF MkII37%43%22%

Wave 3/4GR-7583%81%90%



AF MkII35%30%40%


The arrival of flotillas has certainly been a big change in fleet composition.  The overall usage of CR-90s has gone down quite a bit with a new, cheaper alternative for increasing activation count.

Imperial Ships
AllTop 4Winner
Wave 2Gladiator59%65%65%




Wave 3/4Gozanti71%82%100%





The Imperials have seen a similar drop in usage for the Raider.  The biggest victims of the Flotillas would seem to be the corvettes of both factions.  Despite the new ships, the ISD and Gladiator are seeing almost identical usage and success patterns between the two seasons.

I'll save looking at upgrades for a later post.  There may still be a little more information to come in, but this looks like a good snap shot of how Waves 3 & 4 impacted the Armada Regionals.

Please let me know what stands out or if there is anything else from the data that you think is worth looking at.


  1. Some notable absences from the ship prevalences! Did almost nobody even take an MC80 or VSD?

    And perhaps more shockingly, did literally nobody with an interdictor win?

    1. It's not that MC-80s or VSDs weren't being played, I just decided to only show the Top 5.

      And yeah, so far the Interdictor is the only ship to not show up in a winning fleet.

  2. Interesting data analysis.
    Could you get the average number of flotilla for both faction linked with the tournament result?

    That may be an interesting figure to analyse the impact it has on the game.

    1. I can try and set that up. For now, if you look near the bottom of the Fleet Composition page on the regionals data it does list fleets with at least 1 flotilla and fleets with more than 1 flotilla by finishing order.